AI FOOTBALLPREDICTION LAB
Snapshot available Download data
All predictionsGroup · 2026-06-26
Pre-tournament snapshothigh model confidence

Norway vs France AI prediction

The model’s strongest regulation-time outcome is France win at 64%. Explore the complete probability picture and test alternative scoring assumptions below.

NONorwayHome
Most likely score1–29% probability
FRFranceAway
17%19%64%
Norway winDrawFrance win
Both teams scoreYes59%
2.5 goalsOver66%
Expected goals1.12 · 2.40Home · away
Interactive scenario

Prediction playground

Change either scoring rate. Every probability below recalculates immediately with a Poisson scoreline model.

Win probability
16%18%66%
NorwayDrawFrance
Over 2.5 goals68%
BTTS: yes61%
Likely scores1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

Play this fixture once with the probabilities above. Every run is different.

Scenario controls run locally and leave the published model snapshot unchanged.
Probability at a glance

What the score grid says

Aggregate markets below are calculated directly from the same exact score distribution—not produced as separate tips.

Match result

Norway 17% · Draw 19% · France 64%

Both teams to score

Yes 59% · No 41%

Over / under 2.5

Over 66% · Under 34%

Most likely exact scores

Top five cells in the published score distribution.

011–29%020–28%031–18%040–17%051–37%
Complete exact-score matrix

Rows show Norway goals; columns show France goals. All 256 published cells are included.

H \ A0123456789101112131415
04.1%7.3%8.4%6.5%4.0%2.1%1.0%0.4%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13.5%8.3%8.7%6.7%4.2%2.2%1.0%0.4%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
22.1%4.4%4.8%3.7%2.3%1.2%0.6%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
30.8%1.7%1.9%1.5%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
40.3%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
5<0.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
6<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
7<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
8<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
9<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
10<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
11<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
12<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
14<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
15<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
How this was made

From team strength to a score distribution.

  1. 01
    Fit team strengths

    The upstream Bayesian model estimates attack, defence and home-advantage parameters from international results.

  2. 02
    Build match probabilities

    Expected scoring rates produce an exact-score probability grid; 1X2, BTTS and goal totals are derived from it.

  3. 03
    Simulate the tournament

    Repeated complete tournament paths produce progression and title probabilities for every team.

Forecast wc2026-2026-06-04-2026-100 · Data through 2026-06-04 · 100 tournament runs Source at pinned commit
Continue exploring

Related fixtures

2026-06-16France vs Senegal2026-06-16Iraq vs Norway2026-06-22France vs Iraq2026-06-23Norway vs Senegal