Accuracy without cherry-picking
We evaluate probability quality, not just whether the top pick happened to win. The public scorecard will update as official World Cup 2026 results arrive.
Metrics we publish
Ranked Probability Score (RPS) evaluates the full home/draw/away distribution. Brier score measures squared probability error. Calibration checks whether events assigned 70% probability occur roughly 70% of the time.
Versioned before kickoff
Each prediction is stored with its creation time, data cutoff, model commit and simulation seed. Once a fixture starts, that forecast is locked for scoring. This prevents results from being quietly rewritten after the event.
Current status
The 2026 live scorecard begins with the tournament. Until enough matches have been played, any percentage headline would be statistically weak, so we show the method and sample size instead of manufacturing an “accuracy rate.”