AI FOOTBALLPREDICTION LAB
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All predictionsGroup · 2026-06-22
Pre-tournament snapshothigh model confidence

France vs Iraq AI prediction

The model’s strongest regulation-time outcome is France win at 83%. Explore the complete probability picture and test alternative scoring assumptions below.

FRFranceHome
Most likely score2–015% probability
IRIraqAway
83%13%5%
France winDrawIraq win
Both teams scoreNo65%
2.5 goalsOver60%
Expected goals2.68 · 0.48Home · away
Interactive scenario

Prediction playground

Change either scoring rate. Every probability below recalculates immediately with a Poisson scoreline model.

Win probability
84%12%5%
FranceDrawIraq
Over 2.5 goals61%
BTTS: yes35%
Likely scores2–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

Play this fixture once with the probabilities above. Every run is different.

Scenario controls run locally and leave the published model snapshot unchanged.
Probability at a glance

What the score grid says

Aggregate markets below are calculated directly from the same exact score distribution—not produced as separate tips.

Match result

France 83% · Draw 13% · Iraq 5%

Both teams to score

Yes 35% · No 65%

Over / under 2.5

Over 60% · Under 40%

Most likely exact scores

Top five cells in the published score distribution.

012–015%023–013%031–011%044–09%052–17%
Complete exact-score matrix

Rows show France goals; columns show Iraq goals. All 256 published cells are included.

H \ A0123456789101112131415
05.0%2.0%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
111.5%5.8%1.4%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
214.9%7.0%1.7%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
313.1%6.1%1.5%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
48.8%4.1%1.0%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
54.9%2.3%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
62.4%1.1%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
71.0%0.5%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
80.4%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
90.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
10<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
11<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
12<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
14<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
15<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
How this was made

From team strength to a score distribution.

  1. 01
    Fit team strengths

    The upstream Bayesian model estimates attack, defence and home-advantage parameters from international results.

  2. 02
    Build match probabilities

    Expected scoring rates produce an exact-score probability grid; 1X2, BTTS and goal totals are derived from it.

  3. 03
    Simulate the tournament

    Repeated complete tournament paths produce progression and title probabilities for every team.

Forecast wc2026-2026-06-04-2026-100 · Data through 2026-06-04 · 100 tournament runs Source at pinned commit
Continue exploring

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