AI FOOTBALLPREDICTION LAB
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All predictionsGroup · 2026-06-26
Pre-tournament snapshothigh model confidence

Tunisia vs Netherlands AI prediction

The model’s strongest regulation-time outcome is Netherlands win at 67%. Explore the complete probability picture and test alternative scoring assumptions below.

TUTunisiaHome
Most likely score0–210% probability
NENetherlandsAway
14%18%67%
Tunisia winDrawNetherlands win
Both teams scoreYes54%
2.5 goalsOver63%
Expected goals0.95 · 2.40Home · away
Interactive scenario

Prediction playground

Change either scoring rate. Every probability below recalculates immediately with a Poisson scoreline model.

Win probability
13%17%69%
TunisiaDrawNetherlands
Over 2.5 goals65%
BTTS: yes56%
Likely scores0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

Play this fixture once with the probabilities above. Every run is different.

Scenario controls run locally and leave the published model snapshot unchanged.
Probability at a glance

What the score grid says

Aggregate markets below are calculated directly from the same exact score distribution—not produced as separate tips.

Match result

Tunisia 14% · Draw 18% · Netherlands 67%

Both teams to score

Yes 54% · No 46%

Over / under 2.5

Over 63% · Under 37%

Most likely exact scores

Top five cells in the published score distribution.

010–210%021–29%030–18%041–18%050–38%
Complete exact-score matrix

Rows show Tunisia goals; columns show Netherlands goals. All 256 published cells are included.

H \ A0123456789101112131415
04.6%8.4%9.8%7.7%4.8%2.5%1.2%0.5%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13.5%8.4%8.8%6.8%4.2%2.2%1.0%0.4%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
21.9%3.9%4.2%3.2%2.0%1.0%0.5%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
30.6%1.3%1.4%1.1%0.6%0.3%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
5<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
6<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
7<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
8<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
9<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
10<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
11<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
12<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
14<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
15<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
How this was made

From team strength to a score distribution.

  1. 01
    Fit team strengths

    The upstream Bayesian model estimates attack, defence and home-advantage parameters from international results.

  2. 02
    Build match probabilities

    Expected scoring rates produce an exact-score probability grid; 1X2, BTTS and goal totals are derived from it.

  3. 03
    Simulate the tournament

    Repeated complete tournament paths produce progression and title probabilities for every team.

Forecast wc2026-2026-06-04-2026-100 · Data through 2026-06-04 · 100 tournament runs Source at pinned commit
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