AI FOOTBALLPREDICTION LAB
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All predictionsGroup · 2026-06-26
Pre-tournament snapshothigh model confidence

Turkey vs United States AI prediction

The model’s strongest regulation-time outcome is United States win at 68%. Explore the complete probability picture and test alternative scoring assumptions below.

TUTurkeyHome
Most likely score1–27% probability
UNUnited StatesAway
17%16%68%
Turkey winDrawUnited States win
Both teams scoreYes73%
2.5 goalsOver83%
Expected goals1.52 · 3.08Home · away
Interactive scenario

Prediction playground

Change either scoring rate. Every probability below recalculates immediately with a Poisson scoreline model.

Win probability
16%15%69%
TurkeyDrawUnited States
Over 2.5 goals84%
BTTS: yes75%
Likely scores1–3 · 1–2 · 1–4

Play this fixture once with the probabilities above. Every run is different.

Scenario controls run locally and leave the published model snapshot unchanged.
Probability at a glance

What the score grid says

Aggregate markets below are calculated directly from the same exact score distribution—not produced as separate tips.

Match result

Turkey 17% · Draw 16% · United States 68%

Both teams to score

Yes 73% · No 27%

Over / under 2.5

Over 83% · Under 17%

Most likely exact scores

Top five cells in the published score distribution.

011–27%021–37%031–45%042–25%052–35%
Complete exact-score matrix

Rows show Turkey goals; columns show United States goals. All 256 published cells are included.

H \ A0123456789101112131415
01.4%3.2%4.9%4.9%3.7%2.3%1.3%0.6%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
11.5%5.1%7.1%7.0%5.4%3.4%1.8%0.9%0.4%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
21.3%3.6%5.3%5.3%4.0%2.5%1.4%0.7%0.3%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
30.7%1.9%2.7%2.7%2.1%1.3%0.7%0.3%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
40.3%0.7%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.5%0.3%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
5<0.1%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
6<0.1%<0.1%0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
7<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
8<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
9<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
10<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
11<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
12<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
14<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
15<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
How this was made

From team strength to a score distribution.

  1. 01
    Fit team strengths

    The upstream Bayesian model estimates attack, defence and home-advantage parameters from international results.

  2. 02
    Build match probabilities

    Expected scoring rates produce an exact-score probability grid; 1X2, BTTS and goal totals are derived from it.

  3. 03
    Simulate the tournament

    Repeated complete tournament paths produce progression and title probabilities for every team.

Forecast wc2026-2026-06-04-2026-100 · Data through 2026-06-04 · 100 tournament runs Source at pinned commit
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