AI FOOTBALLPREDICTION LAB
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All predictionsGroup · 2026-06-18
Pre-tournament snapshothigh model confidence

Uzbekistan vs Colombia AI prediction

The model’s strongest regulation-time outcome is Colombia win at 74%. Explore the complete probability picture and test alternative scoring assumptions below.

UZUzbekistanHome
Most likely score0–213% probability
COColombiaAway
9%17%74%
Uzbekistan winDrawColombia win
Both teams scoreNo56%
2.5 goalsOver59%
Expected goals0.68 · 2.44Home · away
Interactive scenario

Prediction playground

Change either scoring rate. Every probability below recalculates immediately with a Poisson scoreline model.

Win probability
8%15%76%
UzbekistanDrawColombia
Over 2.5 goals60%
BTTS: yes45%
Likely scores0–2 · 0–1 · 0–3

Play this fixture once with the probabilities above. Every run is different.

Scenario controls run locally and leave the published model snapshot unchanged.
Probability at a glance

What the score grid says

Aggregate markets below are calculated directly from the same exact score distribution—not produced as separate tips.

Match result

Uzbekistan 9% · Draw 17% · Colombia 74%

Both teams to score

Yes 44% · No 56%

Over / under 2.5

Over 59% · Under 41%

Most likely exact scores

Top five cells in the published score distribution.

010–213%020–111%030–310%041–28%051–18%
Complete exact-score matrix

Rows show Uzbekistan goals; columns show Colombia goals. All 256 published cells are included.

H \ A0123456789101112131415
05.6%10.8%12.5%10.0%6.3%3.4%1.6%0.7%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13.2%7.7%8.3%6.6%4.1%2.2%1.0%0.4%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
21.2%2.6%2.9%2.3%1.4%0.7%0.3%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
30.3%0.6%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
4<0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
5<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
6<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
7<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
8<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
9<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
10<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
11<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
12<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
14<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
15<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
How this was made

From team strength to a score distribution.

  1. 01
    Fit team strengths

    The upstream Bayesian model estimates attack, defence and home-advantage parameters from international results.

  2. 02
    Build match probabilities

    Expected scoring rates produce an exact-score probability grid; 1X2, BTTS and goal totals are derived from it.

  3. 03
    Simulate the tournament

    Repeated complete tournament paths produce progression and title probabilities for every team.

Forecast wc2026-2026-06-04-2026-100 · Data through 2026-06-04 · 100 tournament runs Source at pinned commit
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