AI FOOTBALLPREDICTION LAB
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All predictionsGroup · 2026-06-18
Pre-tournament snapshothigh model confidence

Ghana vs Panama AI prediction

The model’s strongest regulation-time outcome is Ghana win at 61%. Explore the complete probability picture and test alternative scoring assumptions below.

GHGhanaHome
Most likely score1–011% probability
PAPanamaAway
61%22%17%
Ghana winDrawPanama win
Both teams scoreYes51%
2.5 goalsOver55%
Expected goals1.98 · 0.92Home · away
Interactive scenario

Prediction playground

Change either scoring rate. Every probability below recalculates immediately with a Poisson scoreline model.

Win probability
62%21%17%
GhanaDrawPanama
Over 2.5 goals55%
BTTS: yes52%
Likely scores1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

Play this fixture once with the probabilities above. Every run is different.

Scenario controls run locally and leave the published model snapshot unchanged.
Probability at a glance

What the score grid says

Aggregate markets below are calculated directly from the same exact score distribution—not produced as separate tips.

Match result

Ghana 61% · Draw 22% · Panama 17%

Both teams to score

Yes 51% · No 49%

Over / under 2.5

Over 55% · Under 45%

Most likely exact scores

Top five cells in the published score distribution.

011–011%022–011%031–110%042–19%053–07%
Complete exact-score matrix

Rows show Ghana goals; columns show Panama goals. All 256 published cells are included.

H \ A0123456789101112131415
06.7%4.8%2.4%0.8%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
110.8%10.1%4.4%1.5%0.4%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
210.6%9.2%4.2%1.4%0.4%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
37.0%6.1%2.8%1.0%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
43.6%3.1%1.5%0.5%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
51.5%1.3%0.6%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
60.6%0.5%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
70.2%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
8<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
9<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
10<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
11<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
12<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
13<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
14<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
15<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
How this was made

From team strength to a score distribution.

  1. 01
    Fit team strengths

    The upstream Bayesian model estimates attack, defence and home-advantage parameters from international results.

  2. 02
    Build match probabilities

    Expected scoring rates produce an exact-score probability grid; 1X2, BTTS and goal totals are derived from it.

  3. 03
    Simulate the tournament

    Repeated complete tournament paths produce progression and title probabilities for every team.

Forecast wc2026-2026-06-04-2026-100 · Data through 2026-06-04 · 100 tournament runs Source at pinned commit
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