Iran vs New Zealand AI prediction

The model’s strongest regulation-time outcome is Iran win at 98%. Explore the complete probability picture and test alternative scoring assumptions below.

IRIranHome

Most likely score5–012% probability

NENew ZealandAway

98%2%0%

Iran winDrawNew Zealand win

Both teams scoreNo76%

2.5 goalsOver91%

Expected goals5.49 · 0.28Home · away

Interactive scenario

Prediction playground

Change either scoring rate. Every probability below recalculates immediately with a Poisson scoreline model.

Iran5.49Expected goals · model says 5.49New Zealand0.28Expected goals · model says 0.28

Win probability

99%1%0%

IranDrawNew Zealand

Over 2.5 goals92%

BTTS: yes24%

Likely scores5–0 · 6–0 · 4–0

Play this fixture once with the probabilities above. Every run is different.

Scenario controls run locally and leave the published model snapshot unchanged.

Probability at a glance

What the score grid says

Aggregate markets below are calculated directly from the same exact score distribution—not produced as separate tips.

Match result

Iran 98% · Draw 2% · New Zealand 0%

Both teams to score

Yes 24% · No 76%

Over / under 2.5

Over 91% · Under 9%

Most likely exact scores

Top five cells in the published score distribution.

015–012%024–011%036–011%043–09%057–08%

Complete exact-score matrix

Rows show Iran goals; columns show New Zealand goals. All 256 published cells are included.

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
0	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
1	2.3%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
2	5.6%	1.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
3	9.1%	2.5%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
4	11.4%	3.2%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
5	11.9%	3.3%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
6	10.6%	2.9%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
7	8.5%	2.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
8	6.1%	1.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
9	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
10	2.5%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
11	1.5%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
12	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
13	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
14	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
15	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%

How this was made

From team strength to a score distribution.

01
Fit team strengths
The upstream Bayesian model estimates attack, defence and home-advantage parameters from international results.
02
Build match probabilities
Expected scoring rates produce an exact-score probability grid; 1X2, BTTS and goal totals are derived from it.
03
Simulate the tournament
Repeated complete tournament paths produce progression and title probabilities for every team.

Forecast wc2026-2026-06-04-2026-100 · Data through 2026-06-04 · 100 tournament runs Source at pinned commit

Continue exploring

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